Expenditure on new projects slowed down for the second quarter in a row amid an uncertain global environment and higher borrowing costs. There were new projects worth a cumulative Rs 3.26 trillion in the July-September period, according to data provided by project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This figure is much less than Rs 4.39 trillion in the June quarter (Q1FY23) and Rs 8.46 trillion in the March quarter (Q4FY22).
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
For fiscal year FY23, the 2022 Union Budget had targeted a capex outlay of Rs 7.5 trillion, which is 35.4 per cent higher than the FY22 Budget Estimate of Rs 5.54 trillion.
India's corporate sector, including public sector enterprises (PSEs), continues to go slow on investments and capital expenditure (capex). According to data from Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), corporate investments declined for the second consecutive quarter in the April-June period (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). After a contraction of 0.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter, corporate investments likely fell 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY24, write Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladhaa of MOFSL in their recent report on corporate investments.
'If private capex has to kick in, there should at least be 2-3 years of visibility.'
The share of foreign companies in private sector investments, directed towards building new factories and other facilities, has declined over the past six months. A mix of large domestic announcements and relatively lower growth in foreign capital expenditure (capex) plans have played a role, although foreign investments remain near record levels. The share of foreign companies in the overall private sector investments over the four quarters ended June 2023 has dipped to 14.9 per cent, as shown by a Business Standard analysis of data from the project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
'The private sector believes that some enablers in labour-intensive sectors like apparel, toys, tourism, and media retail, can unlock a lot of jobs.'
'Each state is unique, but when it comes to finance, the fundamentals cannot be different.'
'The government is actively engaging with EU to ensure that concerns of Indian companies and hard-to-abate sectors are adequately addressed under CBAM'
The Adani Group plans to invest a record $15-20 billion across businesses over the next five years to chart out the next phase of growth, chairman Gautam Adani said on Tuesday as he touted the conglomerate's strong balance sheet and robust business to shrug off relentless scrutiny it faces. Record earnings from the businesses ranging from seaports to airports, renewable energy parks to data centres, cement to gas and electricity has built India's largest infrastructure group that not only exists just to serve the markets but to serve the nation's destiny, he said.
'My job is to provide people with a bouquet of options they can choose from.'
'If in our cities, all urban bus transport services are free, then the taxpayers are paying for it, or if electricity were to be made free, that's a huge cost to the rest of the people'
Capital expenditure by Indian companies is likely to see an uptick in the upcoming quarters as capacity utilisation has surpassed the critical threshold of 75 per cent, and numerous companies have deleveraged their balance sheets, according to analysts. The first quarter of the current financial year has shown improved profitability, driven by a decrease in input prices. This, according to analysts at Care Ratings, should stimulate a revival in the private capex cycle.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
The slowdown in corporate revenue growth over the last one year has begun to reflect in India Inc's capital expenditure, or capex. The country's top listed companies are going slow on fresh investment in capacity expansion, in line with a deceleration in their top line growth. The combined fixed assets of the listed companies, excluding banking, finance services and insurance (BFSI) and the government-owned oil & gas firms, were up 10.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during April-September 2023 (H1FY24) - the slowest in 18 months - as against 21.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth in H2FY23 (October 2022-March 2023) and 11.6 per cent growth in the April-September 2022 period (H1FY23).
'The shifts in US involvement in global conflicts and geopolitical alliances could introduce uncertainties.'
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
'Stay disciplined, and remain invested.' 'Volatile times are the best to invest in structural opportunities at the right price.'
Investors should tilt their portfolios towards domestic-facing defensive sectors, which should help provide stability and shield them from geopolitical and tariff risks.
The Budget proposals are expected to boost the fortunes of consumer goods and fast-moving consumer goods companies, which have been struggling with poor consumer demand for more than a year. The Budget announcements, such as the increase in standard deduction by Rs 25,000 for income-tax payers and slab revisions, will put more money in their hands, boosting consumer demand. Private consumption is also likely to benefit from a new scheme to offer internships to 10 million youths in the country's top 500 companies.
'Nearly 10 million people will benefit from the increase in the rebate limit for those earning up to Rs 12 lakh.' 'We expect all that money will come back into the economy in either savings, consumption, or investments.'
Public-sector enterprise stocks have seen a good run thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the S&P BSE PSU Index surging by over 26 per cent during the period, compared to an 11 per cent increase in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
Leading chains plan Rs 40K crore infra revival to close capacity gap over next 3-5 years
Only 80.6 per cent of the Rs 6-trillion allocation has been spent by February, data from the Controller General of Accounts shows.
Amid FY23 Union Budget's focus on investments, leading domestic credit rating agency Crisil on Wednesday said that the capital expenditure is "not as high as it sounds". It, however, was quick to add that considering that governments usually tend to cut capex during a crisis, the government has maintained its focus on growth-spurring initiatives amid the pandemic. The research wing of the agency said, if one excludes the Rs 1 lakh crore of loans to states for capex included in the headline figure of Rs 7.50 lakh crore or 2.91 per cent, the actual spend in FY23, will go down to 2.58 per cent of GDP, which is barely at par with the revised estimate of FY22.
'Entering India is exciting, but it's also challenging. You have to be prepared for long-term investment.'
Investors should avoid making drastic changes to their asset allocation during a market correction.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
Government announcements for the building of new roads, railways, and other capital expenditure (capex) projects may have hit an all-time low, according to numbers for the December quarter.
The Centre is looking to improve disclosures made by public sector undertakings (PSUs), and has asked such companies to share monthly progress made on capital expenditure targets and corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives undertaken by them. New details such as gender-wise reporting of contractual workers, unused land, and profit share in joint venture companies have also been added in the list of disclosures. The Department of Public Enterprises (DPE), which publishes the Public Enterprises Survey and collects information for Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) signed with PSUs, is looking to integrate data collected from government-owned companies.
'India is showing a reasonable amount of resilience, but we are still living in a world that is quite fragile.' 'That's why we hope that the government will continue to invest significantly in public capex so that we are able to ride through this cycle till the private sector is able to play its part in investing and adding to the capex cycle.'
'...how do they consume and contribute to the GDP?'
This will be the first full-year Budget of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government since it came to power for a third consecutive term in July last year.
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
'If the markets correct further, PSU stocks could continue to decline.'
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
Fundraising momentum is expected to accelerate further in the New Year, potentially surpassing 2024's record figures
'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
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